This weekend, the second March for Science will take place in Washington DC and 230 other ‘sister marches’ around the world.
There’s no question that the flagship March in Washington, DC will have better weather–last year it was chilly with lots of rain. Research has corroborated what you might expect: nice weather is associated with higher turnout at marches and demonstrations (as well as all sorts of other outdoor activities). Even with the predicted rain-free warm day, it’s unclear how many people will actually turn out. I will not be fielding a research team this weekend since the crowd in Washington, DC is not expected to be larger than 50,000 people, which is my threshold for considering an event a “large-scale demonstration” and studying it.
For my findings from data collected at last year’s March for Science, which turned out an estimated 100,000 people see this recent paper in Sociological Forum. Here’s Table 1: